With the Referendum scheduled for mid October, a major question looms regarding the province’s future remaining in the country or beginning the discussion of separation.
The Alberta Referendum asks voters ten questions containing constitutional and non constitutional questions on the matter of possible sovereignty, immigration, provincial law and power and voter identification.
Question 10 pertaining to the beginning of potential Alberta separation from the confederation is the only question answered in a choice of option one or two as stated by Elections Alberta. The question outlines two clear possibilities for the Province’s future stating:
1. Alberta should be a province of Canada.
2. The Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada.
Unofficial results of the votes can be expected within 48 hours after polls close on voting day if there are seven or more questions on the Referendum according to Elections Alberta.
Dr. Lisa Young, a professor in the Department of Political Science at U of C stated that there’s many enormous questions between where we are now and an independent Alberta.
“This is highly speculative,” Young stated, “There’s no simple page analysis of anything like this, right? It’s a complicated question that’s being asked, and one that maybe it’s very difficult to tell people exactly what would happen because there is just sort of uncertainty after uncertainty,”
Option One
If option one should see the most support from Alberta voters on October 19th the province would ultimately remain the same and not begin the legal process for separation.
The province would continue the state in which it currently resides regarding federal and provincial governance.
“Public policies wouldn’t change, constitutional conversations wouldn’t happen. The day after a referendum, if option [one] wins we continue on our way. Nothing is fundamentally changed,” Dr. Young said to the Gauntlet.
The democratic results of the referendum will allow the provincial government to observe public opinion on the separation topic, and while legal action would not commence, the issue may remain a part of the political conversation in the province.
Option Two
Should option two see unwavering support from Alberta voters, the province can expect to see the legal process of provincial sovereignty begin.
It must be stated that should this option succeed, the province would not immediately separate from confederation, option two simply argues for discussions allowed by law to be explored.
Dr. Young told the Gauntlet option [two] asks for a second, potentially, binding referendum. “The government is talking about it as a binding referendum, [and] that if it was successful, would initiate a negotiation with the rest of Canada about exit. So we’re quite far away from that.” stated Dr. Young.
A second binding referendum would need to occur solidifying the choice for Albertans to remain or leave but as previously reported by the CBC, Premier Danielle Smith has backtracked on previous comments regarding a potential second referendum date leaving the answer unclear.
Dr. Young raised several legal concerns regarding a second referendum.
“Moving quickly on another referendum, there would be some legal question about this. Right now we have a court ruling that says a question like that cannot be put to the people of Alberta without consultation with Indigenous people. The Premier has said privately in meetings with [UCP] party members that she would do this in a matter of weeks. Indigenous groups have signaled that when we consider that to be adequate, it would almost certainly end up in court. So there might or might not be a referendum quickly,” Dr. Young told the Gauntlet.
Dr. Young said that during a second referendum the stakes would be higher and voter turnout might be higher. “What we do know is that probably the support for separation would be lower in a second referendum than it’s likely to be in this one,” Dr. Young stated.
These legal processes for separation could include clear changes to the constitution, employing the Clarity Act, which states the House of Commons must see a clear majority of support from the public for the cause, and negotiate any changes to Indigenous rights, Treaty Lands and minority rights.
Provincial independence from the Confederation of Canada would amass a great deal of legal considerations within the constitutional framework and Indigenous governments would prove extremely costly.
In the the Economic and Fiscal Implications of Alberta Separation Overview Report published by the School of Public Policy states the transition to independence could take years.
“Even in favourable circumstances, the initial transition period might take several years, and much longer if negotiations or legal disputes arise. The negotiations would be complex, covering everything from pipelines to borders, assets, debt and systems,” states the report.
They also include that in favourable conditions the transition to independence could cost $50 billion, whereas worst case separation could cost up to $170 billion.
Regarding fiscal impacts, the report states that there could be potential savings by avoiding equalization transfers and services like the Coast Guard through separation.
“Alberta might also deliver federal government services more efficiently and find scope to reduce duplication. On the other hand, fixed costs of delivering programs, such as back-office functions, might be spread across fewer taxpayers,” states the website.
The School of Public Policy also emphasizes short and long term spending a new country must take on.
“In the short term, the new country would need to spend considerable resources on hiring and training new people, buying IT systems, new military hardware, office buildings and more,”
“In the long term, Alberta would be taking on major spending responsibilities: social programs such as Old Age Security, Employment Insurance and the Canada Pension Plan, and activities with a lot of direct spending, such as defence, border security, immigration and passports, federal policy and many others,” states the website.
The upcoming referendum leaves many uncertainties for the future of the province with the possibility of being an independent state or remaining within Canada.
How separation puts Alberta institutions at risk
A “free” Alberta could cost the U of C talented researchers and millions in funding.
