The upcoming referendum has raised concerns about how it could impact people at the local level.
Here’s how Alberta separating from Canada would impact the city of Calgary.
Separation risks exposing the province to a severe recession, failing investment due to economic uncertainty, trade disruption, massive job losses and staggering costs of building institutions of a new country such as defence, currency, international relations and social programs.
A report from economist Jim Stanford and the Alberta Federation of Labour warns that workers could lose benefits and programs they currently rely on from the federal government, such as employment insurance, federal labour standards, the Canada pension plan and protections under the Charter of Rights and Freedoms.
“Right now, most workers in Alberta get more back in federal services and benefits than they pay in federal taxes – but after separation they would pay more taxes, for fewer service,” the report states.
According to a study done by Calgary Chamber, under the direction of University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe, it reports that one in three jobs in Alberta are tied to out-of-province trade and the economy could see a six per cent reduction in per capita GDP if Alberta were to vote for separation.
Separating would create a major risk of job losses due to reduced investment confidence.
“We are the beating heart of enterprise in Alberta and one of the fastest growing cities in North America. But all of that is being threatened by instability,” Calgary Mayor Jeromy Farkas told CBC.
“I will make a loud and proud case for this country and our city’s role in it. My job is to fight for the city’s future, protect confidence in our economy and make the case that Calgary is stable, ambitious and open for business,” stated Farkas to the Calgary Herald.
The prospect of separating also creates uncertainty about the regulatory framework businesses would operate in, potentially scaring away necessary labour from moving to Alberta.
“With Calgary serving as home to several federally regulated industries, this process will further undermine regulatory certainty and jeopardize future economic advancement,” said Deborah Yedlin, President and CEO of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce in a statement.
The chamber study estimated that the province has already seen a reduction of as much as $15 billion in new investment due to increased uncertainty around the referendum.
A poll commissioned by the Calgary Chamber of Commerce shows that nearly half of the surveyed members would consider moving their businesses out of the province if Albertans were to vote this October to begin the separation process.
Additionally, 63 per cent of respondents say talk of separation is already harming their operations, according to the Chamber study.
Alberta would also need to take over its share of the federal debt, set up new trade agreements and take over federal transfers for health care, child care and other social services.
The CanadaWest Foundation put a $200 billion price tag on setup costs for an independent Alberta, with ongoing costs of more than $50 billion annually.
The report also calculates that the debt per person in the province could rise to between $80,000 and $95,000 if Alberta were to separate due to this increased debt share.
In an article written by CBC, the province is doing its own report costing out potential expenses related to separation. Premier Danielle Smith gave an early estimate of $400 billion earlier this summer.
Regardless of if Alberta moves forward with separation, the prospect alone is increasingly raising concerns about Calgary’s economic future, jobs and long-term stability.
